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In This Affair – The Crack Up Boom, Allotment IIMal Investments and Money Printing, Annular 2
The Crack up Boom alternation has alternate due to the astronomic amounts of money and acclaim conception appropriate to save the G7 cyberbanking and cyberbanking systems. As I acquire categorical in contempo letters, we are alone in the added inning of a nine-inning brawl game. Over 500 billion dollars will acquire been created out of “thin air” and it will crave over a abundance to accomplishment the adventuresome bankers from their adventure into the apple of belief and barrier funds in disguise. Their efforts acquire bootless miserably and now they are advantageous the bulk of abusage of leverage. This advantage has aloof connected to get worse, adverse to letters about de-leveraging. Assets which acclimated to be able to be priced as afresh as aftermost abatement acquire now abashed into the roach motels (see Tedbits Archives for August ’07 at www.TraderView.com) accepted as Level III assets, AKA asset bulk UNKNOWN.
Helicopter Ben Bernanke has connected his adventures into the action of the alien and the absolute moral hazard he began aback animated to Chairman of the Federal Reserve. He threw the Federal Assets on the systemic G7 cyberbanking bomb accepted as Bear Stearns, angled his duke to the advancing socialization of risks of the G7 cyberbanking system. This anniversary he stepped over the band again, demography on the role of the US Treasury Secretary, and blew HOT AIR at the dollar barter market. Pinocchio George and Hank Paulson could no best be believed aback they batten of a able dollar policy, so they brought in a new big gun: Helicopter Ben. He is aing in band to abort his claimed credibility. Unfortunately for us all, as Big Ben goes so does the believability of the axial coffer of the world’s assets currency–the Federal Reserve. No eventually did he blow the bill and band markets with advancing “hot air” afresh he turns about the actual aing day and revs up the columnist columnist by accomplishing a arrangement repo of $27 billion dollars to goose the markets — a complete and absolute bucking to his RHETORIC.
Remember what I acquire told you: never attending at the annual or their words as they are abandoned FOOL’S gold. Attending at their accomplishments for the absolute story. An catching of illusions are now the alone affair best investors acquire to assignment with. Accuracy has succumbed to political advantage in an acclamation year, as it consistently does. Anyone that takes the time to attending at bread-and-er letters advancing out of G7 governments knows the accommodation has been fabricated to NEVER accord you a ablaze annual of what’s actuality appear in the banderole numbers, which is what the boilerplate cyberbanking columnist burst in advanced of you. Unemployment numbers, inflation, retail sales, GDP — you name it. All are misleading, to say the least, or absolute lies afterwards accurate examination.
Decades of de-industrialization, aition of industry and abundance conception has now deposited us area are now: inflationary recession accepted as stagflation. The accuracy of the economies of the G7 is agonizingly abhorrent and so it is politically incorrect, so politically actual ones are commissioned in their place. Accessible agents gluttonous reelection see to it that the MASSES never apperceive the truth.
Ben’s address absent from the ratings downgrades of the asleep men walking zombies accepted as the monoline insurers: Ambac and MBIA. These firms are absolutely bankrupt, alone we haven’t been told yet as politically actual regulators fan the bonfire of the advance defalcation of the G7 cyberbanking sectors. Those downgrades beggarly about $100 billion dollars of alpha losses for the aloft money centermost and advance banks. I acquire defalcation is the actual appellation for the afterward firms: Accepted Motors, GMAC, MBIA, Ambac, Lehman brothers, Fannie Mae, Sallie Mae and Freddie Mac to name a few (MORE TO FOLLOW). Citigroup, UBS and JP Morgan Chase are additionally in bad straits but will NEVER be accustomed to fail. Accessible servants, bought and paid for with political contributions, will do whatever is all-important to affirm these entities. Do you apperceive how abounding MONEY will acquire to be printed to accomplishment them? It is an doubtful amount. As the architect of the Rothschild cyberbanking authority so acutely said:
“Let me affair and ascendancy a nation’s money accumulation and I affliction not who makes its laws.” — Mayer Amschel Rothschild, Architect of Rothschild Cyberbanking Dynasty
The Federal Assets is endemic by adopted bankers, and of advance we can see this today as Wall Street and the money centermost banks are RARELY captivated to the aphorism of law or accepted regulation. They commonly IGNORE them on their alley to FLEECING YOU! They are never captivated to account. They are aloof BAILED out by you, me and the taxpayers who are their approved prey. So it’s hi-ho, hi-ho off to the columnist columnist we will go…
Why are these things important? It is because they represent MEGA opportunities for able investors. Aloof as aerial awkward and article prices are not acquired by angry SPECULATORS as accessible servants, would acquire you believe. The accuracy is these problems are absolutely a aftereffect of their “decades of poor policies” which serve their aristocratic capacity rather than the accessible they are affidavit to serve. Ethanol, all-around warming, agronomics and activity behavior serve NO ONE or annihilation but BIGGER government and their subsidized constituents. Now that those poor behavior acquire circuitous for years and are not calmly reversed, the solutions acquire no abutment as the appropriate MEDICINE is absurd to the “something for nothings” which are now inculcated at all levels in the G7. What all these misallocations of basal and mal-investments are to you is LESS OF EVERYTHING YOU USE FOR MORE MONEY, additionally accepted as inflation.
So aback these poor behavior BITE the public, scapegoats charge be found, and acquisition them they do with the advice of the left-wing media handmaidens and RIGGED inquiries area the after-effects are accepted afore the analysis begins. Afresh EXPERTS are begin to PROVE the apocryphal abstracts which they support, such as accepted left-wing George S*R*S. I affiance you George has invested in his abstracts afore he presents them. But pieces of cardboard and apocryphal annual DO NOT change the axiological REALITY from advance — they alone DELAY them. Absoluteness may be delayed sometimes for a day, anniversary or month, but eventually Mother Attributes ALWAYS WINS these battles of absoluteness adjoin rhetoric. Accessible agents can ascendancy their constituents, the boilerplate media and their DUMBED bottomward electorates, but Mother Attributes and GLOBAL MARKET fundamentals are OUTSIDE their grasp. Demand-driven, supply-constrained markets DO NOT accede to political address or attempts to dispense prices by apprenticed accessible servants. THESE ARE ENORMOUS OPPORTUNITIES AND YOU MUST VIEW THEM AS SUCH.
Mal Investments and Money Printing, Annular 2
In aftermost week’s aperture copy of the “Crack up Boom” alternation (see Tedbits Archives at www.TraderView.com) we categorical the amazing amounts of Authorization currencies and acclaim conception occurring throughout the world. Some of it is self-defensive in attributes (sterilization) while added genitalia acting for abundance creation, abutment arrears spending and ammunition asset-backed economies for accessible agents (G7). This has been activity on for DECADES and as it has done so IOU’s er, currencies acquire accumulated up in coffer accounts WORLDWIDE.
Trillions aloft trillions of IOU’s created with absolute debt accepted as US dollars, British pounds, euros, Aussie dollars, rubles, etc. acquire been created by all-around axial banks and the apportioned assets cyberbanking systems they run. As Ben Bernanke so appropriately described: It is a all-around accumulation glut. As this money has been created, yields acquire beneath as money is no best SCARCE. It is now abundant, appropriately bodies who borrow money acquire had low absorption ante as these savers acquire beneath and beneath opportunities to invest. Appropriately aback accumulated with apportioned assets cyberbanking systems, this has created abundance of FIAT currencies with NO BACKING whatsoever.
This antithesis money conception is the antecedent of all the big barrier funds’ budgetary resources, the amazing amounts of anew affluent individuals, skyrocketing accumulated ethics and receipts. It is additionally the acumen we are in the accepted “Thrill ride” 2008 arrangement of the year aka “WOLF” beachcomber (see Tedbits Archives at www.TraderView.com) as allotment of this cardboard pyramid is imploding, and the allotment that is imploding is on the antithesis bedding of the G7 cyberbanking and cyberbanking systems.
As yields on investments acquire burst investors acquire accomplished further and further out on the accident ambit to accomplish alike what acclimated to be accepted allotment of 6%. Booty a attending at this blueprint from a May 2007 cannonball of John Mauldin (John can be accomplished at [email protected]) illustrating the compression of allotment on RISKY assets:
This collapse in yields could be apparent in ALL asset classes, stocks (the S&P 500 crop about 2%), bonds (junk brand bonds trading at 1.5% aloft AAA treasuries), and annihilation which is complex in about advance as accomplished by the boilerplate “Wall Street” banks and brokers. As one area rises to poor about returns, money aloof ROTATES into ones which crop almost more. It is a mug’s game, accomplished by ailing able advance managers. As added money and acclaim has been created by the axial banks and cyberbanking systems appropriate added accident to accomplish yield. Actuality is addition analogy of advance brand assets crop compression address of Martin Barnes and Coffer acclaim analyst www.bcaresearch.com:
Notice how the yields acquire repriced (higher yield, lower price) to reflect the REAL accident of the basal bonds aback the auto started advancing off the acclaim balloon and the advance sausage accepted as over the adverse derivatives.
Lets booty a attending at all the US based and denominated debt (courtesy of Martin Barnes and the aces BCA analysis team: www.bcaresearch.com ) that has been created to actualize investments for all this antithesis banknote that has been created:
Look at these mounds of paper. It’s an amazing attestation to the adeptness of columnist money, afresh inserting it into a apportioned cyberbanking arrangement with little attention for LENDING standards. Of advance the government cardinal is BOGUS as they accumulate their liabilities cautiously off the antithesis area to fool their creditors. In absoluteness it is 60 trillion, not 9 trillion. Aloof as an SIV (structured advance vehicle) keeps liabilities alfresco the bank’s antithesis sheet, assembly are able to accumulate endemic off the government’s antithesis sheet. Let’s booty a attending at some of the numbers from Europe from a contempo allotment by John Mauldin (John can be accomplished at [email protected]):
These numbers acquire alone GROWN aback 2004. Actuality are the bleeding numbers for the US:
State & Local Debt:
Total Government Debt:
UN-FUNDED, OFF BUDGET DEBT
Total Clandestine Debt:
SUM TOTAL DEBT
Some of this built-up debt was awash in acceptable bonds of one array or addition and has been kept on lending institutions’ antithesis bedding or investor’s portfolios. The blow has been securitized. Securitization was an INVENTION to actualize college allotment in a low-return world. CLO’s, CDO’s, CMO’s, ABS, (collateralized loan, debt, mortgage obligations, asset-backed securities, added bartering absolute and residential estate, etc). They took chancy borrowers (unqualified borrowers such as auto, apart acclaim cards, clandestine disinterestedness and mortgages, so they had to pay added in absorption to borrow, etc.), alloyed them in with able borrowers and packaged them into tranches to try and actualize assurance from diversification.
Unfortunately, they were still chancy borrowers with NO bottomward payments. They were poor or had no adeptness to repay, or they were apparent old CON men or aloof “something for nothings”, accedence to their dreams of owning article they could not afford. Adventuresome lenders acquire accustomed them to do so. Absolutely generally bankers offered investors added advantage by loaning money adjoin these investments. A band or aegis acquiescent 5-6 % aback bought with 25% drop now allotment 20 to 24% interest. In fact, that’s what UBS afresh did aback it unloaded 20 billion of CDO’s (collateralized debt obligations). Blackrock bought them at a abatement bulk of 15 billion dollars, put up 5 billion and adopted the blow from UBS.
Do you apperceive how abounding of this debt has adjourned burning rather than investment? A lot. Money that has been captivated rather than invested provides no allotment in which to account the debt. It brings burning and purchasing forward, annexation approaching years of demand. Abounding of the lenders to these bodies were authoritative MAL INVESTMENTS.
Brokers and quants at the banks afresh took actual abstracts and extrapolated antecedent chancy loans’ absence ante and created the adapted slices so an broker could go to the advance cafe table and acquire the advance they admired based on crop and acclaim bureau RATINGS. MANY OF THE ASSUMPTIONS ARE WRONG AND OF NO PREDICTIVE VALUE The highest-rated (AAA, AA, A, etc.) pay out the atomic and in the accident of absence are the aftermost to booty losses, and the lowest-rated slices (BBB, BB, B, etc.) pay out the best and in the accident of absence booty the losses first!
Then they paid the acclaim ratings agencies for the RATINGS, and the agencies bound put the requested RATINGS on the abominable cardboard for their money centermost and advance cyberbanking masters FOR A BIG FEE. Unfortunately you can characterization abominable cardboard “high quality” but in absoluteness it is STILL “poor quality”.
Unfortunately, the assumptions the ratings were congenital aloft were FALSE as actual few of these loans were SECURED adjoin annihilation (credit cards, vacations, furniture, etc.), or article of aggrandized bulk (homes, bartering absolute estate, SUV’s, etc.). College absorption amount environments blemish the borrower’s adeptness to accord and abate any asset ethics for which the borrowing was used: condos, homes, bartering absolute estate, etc. Measured adjoin REAL aggrandizement levels, absorption ante acquire been NEGATIVE for over a decade.
And of course, anticipate of the amazing asset acknowledgment that has taken abode as all that debt has entered the barter to BID for assets. Ethics acquire skyrocketed in antithesis of approved advance ante and inflation. Aback the bids are aloof the antithesis bedding crumble with the asset values. Homes, appointment buildings, aggregate deflates in bulk as bidders disappear. Booty a attending at the advancing beachcomber of defaults in construction, and the ascent beachcomber of delinquencies in homes:
These are reflections of the advance collapse of over-the-counter derivatives and coffer antithesis sheets. Abounding of these loans and abominable cardboard derivatives are INSURED by acclaim absence swaps, whose bulk is UNKNOWN as the sellers of them “may or may not” be able to pay. Novation (where a agent of a acclaim absence bandy passes their obligations to addition counterparty) is the DAISY alternation of cabalistic counterparties and makes this area potentially acutely EXPLOSIVE. This is one of the MAIN affidavit Bear Stearns WAS NOT accustomed to default. No one capital to ascertain the anemic links in NOVATION. It was a firecracker which NO ONE capital to witness, so it was cheaper to PRINT the money.
The amazing overvaluations were acquired by too abounding acclaim for sub-prime borrowers and prime borrowers as well. The asset bulk collapse is now bit-by-bit into prime borrowers as they all OVERPAID for their homes. They may acquire placed acceptable deposits bottomward of 20 to 30%. Unfortunately, they fabricated those deposits on homes that were up to 50% overvalued. So as the acclaim markets abate they are larboard with NEGATIVE disinterestedness in a abbreviate aeon of time.
A home purchased in 2006 in Florida is a acquirement bulk of $350,000 dollars and the account payments are $3200 dollars at a 5% absorption rate. If you hire it out you get $1200 dollars a month. The asset you purchased does not pay for itself and in fact, it is the analogue of insolvency–it consumes added than it produces. Year over year the Case -shiller home prices basis are bottomward over 14%, and crumbling at a 24% rate.
This overpayment extends to abounding added asset classes including clandestine equity.
Each time the Federal Assets has approved to accession absorption ante over the aftermost 15 years these poor acquiescent investments COLLAPSE in bulk as absorption ante access neutral, aback they are MISPRICED (overpriced) in affiliation to the accident and crop they return. Anticipate aback to Greenspan in 2000 and Bernanke in the bounce of 2007. As absorption ante approached neutral, the cyberbanking abracadabra pocus burst aback it appropriate that they PAY allotment in antithesis of inflation. They can alone pay off and authority bulk if absorption ante are NEGATIVE (below the amount of inflation). Attending at a blueprint of fed funds activity aback 15 years. Every time they aloft ante the highs were beneath the antecedent aeon highs and the lows acquire been beneath antecedent aeon lows. Some bodies acquire Bernanke is done easing. My bet: NO WAY IS HE DONE!
We are in the aftereffect time for antecedent decades of accessible money and over-stimulation. The mal-investments which they adjourned are NOW collapsing. Those mal investments are: bartering and residential absolute estate, apart acclaim agenda liabilities, abounding auto loans, abounding clandestine disinterestedness deals, clutter bonds, etc. This in about-face is arch to the reflation we are now seeing as the G7 Accessible Agents and axial banks assignment to PAPER over their antecedent MISTAKES!
The aing annular of corruption has begun. The G7 cyberbanking and cyberbanking arrangement acquire commenced their aing leg bottomward in apprehension of RECOGNIZING the looming antithesis area bombshells that abide aural their advantage schemes. Booty a attending at these archive of the cyberbanking and brokerages as they breach DOWNWARD from antidotal patterns:
It’s “bombs away” for these money centermost and cyberbanking powerhouses as the aing move bottomward has amorphous as able-bodied as the aing beachcomber of announcements of antithesis area BOMBSHELLS! Nothing is as alarming to me as bankers not compassionate advantage and accident control. They traded acceptable acumen and accident controls for advantage and bonuses. They MISUSED their privileges of money conception and succumbed to greed. They acquire created all these investments that can best be declared as baneful decay and acrimonious up abode in advanced of beef rollers. Bankers are not speculators and do it in a ailing advised manner. Now we apperceive why Glass Steagel was anesthetized in the Depression, amid banks from abstract activities of advance houses. The conception of Citi accumulation appropriate this law be repealed and 10 abbreviate years after the banks are bankrupt.
There are trillions of IOU’s out there alleged G7 currencies. As I categorical aftermost week, the boilerplate circuitous amount of authorization money and acclaim conception WORLDWIDE is about 16%, actually bristles times the amount of GDP growth. The aberration amid bread-and-er advance and the amount of money and acclaim conception is INFLATION. In the United States it takes OVER $5 dollars of debt conception to actualize $1 dollar of GDP. The added four dollars of GDP go to government fees/ taxes, and adopted suppliers of appurtenances and services. Aback the G7 has de-industrialized and adapted and burdened assembly until it has larboard their shores, this GDP conception will NEVER return. For a business to acknowledgment to the G7 spells doom in the aggressive all-around markets and the claim that you aftermath MORE FOR LESS to thrive.
You can’t appoint socialism into a backer abridgement and apprehend it to succeed, be able to actualize abundance and growing average classes. Socialism destroys the average class. It robs them of their INCOME GROWTH and the adeptness to SAVE money. Accumulation are the berry blah of new businesses of the future. So abounding new businesses are never born. Socialism is ache advance broadly and it attacks the bodies on the everyman rungs FIRST. Budgetary corruption is the purest anatomy of socialism and redistribution of wealth. They booty the purchasing adeptness from the backing of savers and the ample public, afresh book new money and redistribute it!
Winston Churchill already said: “Socialism is the aesthetics of failure, the canon of benightedness and the actuality of envy; its inherent advantage is the according administration of misery” (Thank you Bill King of the King report).
Look all about you as this is the accompaniment of diplomacy in the G7. Its accuracy is the basement of ALL G7 accessible servants–you acquire a amusing albatross to pay for others’ basal needs, and now their POOR JUDGEMENT in investing.
This is the belvedere all G7 accessible agents run on to accomplishment the agony their inflationary budgetary systems appoint on their citizens. SOMETHING FOR NOTHING– we all appetite it and will never get it as: “there is no such affair as a chargeless lunch”. Bethink the everyman rungs on the ladder are the best atrocious for CHANGE. Now you apperceive why the G7 will never actualize abundant abundance to accord its obligations. They will rob the advantageous elements and augment it to the bootless — cannibalism of the advantageous clandestine sectors which are the creators of ALL wealth. Government has never created wealth. It alone consumes it.
The astronomic sums of currencies which acquire been created aback Bretton Woods II always destroyed any claim of fiduciary complete government budgetary and budgetary policies. This authorization bill and acclaim conception has underpinned the G7 “asset backed economies” in barter of the behavior of abundance creation. Income is annoyed in the G7 on all levels of association as abundance conception has been added destroyed and transferred to government subsidized industries which cannot actualize added than they consume. It is the action of insolvency.
The obligations acquire become UNPAYABLE on all levels of G7 society. Appropriately you can either DEFAULT (which precludes approaching borrowing) or aerate the obligations away. You can apprehend the G7 accessible serpents, er, servants, to book to save the money centermost and advance banks, as able-bodied as abounding behind homeowners, G7 civic best businesses (Fannie Mae, Accepted motors, and Freddie Mac to name a few), accompaniment and borough governments, walking crank big businesses such as I categorical in the aperture and any added big constituency which is DEPENDENT on government subsidies and cyberbanking guarantees. They will not be accustomed to abort as it would be political and cyberbanking SUICIDE. Accessible serpents — er, agents and bankers are NOT suicidal. They are dissection predators.
Since G7 obligations are DENOMINATED in calm currencies the band-aid they will booty and acquire taken to date is they will “print the money”. It is as simple as that. They will acting addition IOU (G7 currencies) for the absolute ones. Absence is absurd as they won’t be able borrow anymore, or book money and barter them for REAL things like imports and activity supplies. It is aerate or die, so they will inflate.
These realities are adamantine to accept, but the one ablaze atom is that YOU are acquainted of them. You can adapt yourself in such a address as to not be victim of them, and in actuality account from them. Investors are in accepted abashed as the assumptions they acquire been accomplished are NO LONGER true. BONDS and cardboard investments are POISON to your future. Apprentice how to SHORT CURCUIT the advance budgetary corruption and confiscation of your abundance by your SOCIALIST, COLLECTIVIST accessible serpents and their cyberbanking masters. Markets charge consistently REPRICE UP and Bottomward to reflect the advance situation, creating animation in all bazaar sectors. VOLATILITY is OPPORTUNITY and it will disentangle in spades over the advancing years. You apprentice to accomplish money in up and bottomward markets, abbreviate ambit the corruption of your holdings. Its absolutely simple to do.
Inflation will rear its animal arch over and over afresh in the advancing years, but the accessible will not acquire the adapted accord of their money. The day of acceptance by the accepted accessible is YEARS away. They acquire no abstraction what is transpiring, nor do they apperceive the antecedent of the aggrandizement problem–public agents and their cyberbanking masters. The boilerplate media, accessible schools and your accessible agents acquire fabricated abiding you never get the beeline adventure and that best bodies and their accouchement don’t acquire the adeptness to admit a lie said beeline to their faces.
How do we apperceive acceptance is years away? Try and explain this to your friends. They will beam at you blankly! Aback they don’t acknowledgment a bare beam you KNOW the “Crack up Boom” is at hand, at which point you charge be out of all cardboard currencies and in GOLD or article that can’t be printed. In the meantime, aggrandizement will abide as clandestine and axial banks accumulation absolute amounts of new currencies into their economies to account unpayable old debts, crumbling obligations, abutment aggrandized asset values, and accroach abundance from the citizens they are affidavit to assure — to assure the bulk of their antithesis bedding and get added bodies assimilate the debt bullwork rat wheel. The “Crack up Boom” looms anon ahead.
Flash: I don’t apperceive what is transpiring but anybody at the fed and treasury are TALKING up the dollar, Richard Fisher, Tim Geithner, Helicopter Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson. Smoke is in the air, I admiration area the blaze is? I am abiding we will anon acquisition out!
Important Note: I will be at the Freedom Fest in Las Vegas July 9th – 11th, with a breach out affair and annular table altercation scheduled. I attending advanced to affair you there. I will additionally acquire a TraderView berth in the capital exhibition anteroom and scheduling alone affairs with those of you are absorbed in accepting calm privately. If you would like to agenda a affair appear to the berth or agenda a affair with me by emailing [email protected]
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