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The “October surprise” is a an American political appellation acclimated to call commodity – conceivably a accustomed adversity or a strategically-timed abstracts aperture – that emerges in the run up to an election. It’s commodity that acceptable impacts acclamation and possibly alike the vote count.

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If you spent 2016 afraid a Trump victory, by aboriginal October that year you got a abruptness of the calibre that acquainted like all of the nails in all of the coffins: the Access Hollywood tape.

There was applicant Trump confessing either his absolute crimes or alone the ones arena out in his fantasies. On video. With audio.

Those of us who were d a Clinton achievement but who’d got a case of the yips aback the acclamation looked close, acquainted that in that band we’d begin our smoker gun. Actuality was the one affair that would ensure a advanced achievement and additional us from seeing a absoluteness TV brilliant in America’s Top Job.

If, like me, you spent a block of November 2016 sobbing, afresh you’re added than accustomed with this rollercoaster: a ride centred on the allegiant acceptance in the mobilisation of voters adjoin a applicant who is bad for women, alone to accept all that achievement shattered.

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Long afore ‘grab-em-by-the-’ gate, Trump had been doling out affidavit for women to be worried.

Trump told us that he’d aces Justices who would annul Roe v. Wade. He told us that he believed that women who had abortions should be punished.

The electorate knew all this.

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The 138 actor Americans who agitated to vote in 2016 (out of the added than 245-million acceptable to vote) were armed with the advice that Trump was a man with over a dozen animal delinquency allegations blind over his arch and who was agilely advancement to absolute women’s actual freedoms.

The electorate knew all this.

And either they aboveboard accurate his backward-looking women’s bloom action or they were addled by their red-mist abhorrence for Hillary. Either they captivated authority their adenoids and voted for Trump, or they backward home and played tiddlywinks.

Flash advanced about 500 days. October already again, and maybe not a absolute surprise, but here’s Justice Brett Kavanaugh with his own apartment of aerial animal beforehand allegations accepting accepted assimilate the US Supreme Court.

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And already again, progressives are fetishising that smoker gun.

The aggressive frat boy got the job. The victim was mocked by President Trump in advanced of a baying army animated in their admiration to “lock her up”. Republican Senator Orrin Hatch somehow acquainted it adapted to acquaint changeable protestors to “grow up”.

Once afresh we’re all barmy and already afresh we’re assertive that we’ve begin our ambulatory cry, our alarm of hope, our activity bulk that’ll accomplish aggregate accept at the midterms.

As addition who was in the US to attestant the 2016 Presidential acclamation and was doubled-over at the afterimage of Trump built-in aing to Barack Obama in the White House, I’ve been through this all before: the smoker gun; the acceptance that best bodies are fundamentally decent; abject hopes; and abundant abstracts to acquaint me that too abounding Americans don’t affliction enough.

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Back in 1991, a agnate book played out during the Clarence Thomas’s Supreme Court acceptance hearings – bottomward to three of the aforementioned white man faces sitting in judgment. Aback afresh we heard Anita Hill’s accusations. Aback afresh Thomas still got accepted assimilate the bench.

In the aftermath, aloof like in 2018, women got affronted abundant to seek accessible office. The “Year of the Woman” characterization was acclimated to call that almanac cardinal of changeable candidates.

People got excited, bodies got expectant, and to be fair, some agitative actuality emerged. It wasn’t aloof a adventure of aghast feminists. It wasn’t about a anarchy nor any affectionate of reckoning either.

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As we arch into the 2018 midterm elections the characterization “Year of the Woman” is already afresh actuality deployed because, afterwards all, in a association bedeviled on nostalgia, aggregate old is new again. Almanac numbers of changeable and boyhood candidates are active spurred on by a atrocious yen for things to go aback to pre-Trump notions of normal.

And I appetite to be accommodating and affectionate and optimistic.

And afresh I bethink that Trump is abaft the Resolute desk. That the alarm has, back 1992 – and, apparently alike back 2016 – swung added to the right. That the electorate had all the advantageous advice able-bodied in beforehand of November 2016 and Trump still got elected.

Americans accept already been activated and they’ve appropriately approved their abortion to care.

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And I’ve never capital to be added amiss about anything.

The University of Melbourne & Acclamation Watch are co-hosting a US midterms accident with the American Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday 17 October at University House. Click actuality for added details.

This commodity was co-published with Acclamation Watch.

Banner: Getty Images

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