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With the fantasy abstract division now in abounding swing, I anticipation it would be fun to booty a attending at the success amount of accomplished abstract classes dating aback to the 2003-04 season. I capital to see how generally the No. 1 all-embracing alternative put alternating a noteworthy season, how frequently the No. 2 all-embracing aces fell collapsed during their amateur year, and how far addition could abatement in the absolute NBA abstract and still aftermath a statistically allusive amateur campaign.

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Some things of note:

I begin that over the accomplished 15 years, the No. 1 all-embracing alternative has put calm a affection fantasy division 11 out of 15 times (although two of those players had delayed debuts).

The anathema of the No. 2 aces has captivated accurate 10 times over the accomplished 15 years.

The third all-embracing alternative has had a allusive fantasy division 10 times over the accomplished 15 years (although Joel Embiid’s admission took two years to get to).

Only six times has a amateur alfresco of the top-10 put up a accordant fantasy season, and those three players go by the names of: Josh Smith, Klay Thompson, Malcolm Brogdon, Donovan Mitchell, Kyle Kuzma, John Collins

Over the accomplished 15 years, aloof two players accept been able to aftermath first-round amount during their amateur season: Stephen Curry and Karl-Anthony Towns.

While second-round picks can absolutely authorize themselves after in their careers, alone already over the accomplished 15 years has a amateur from the additional annular produced a allusive fantasy division – Malcolm Brogdon.

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Before we burrow into the data, I appetite to ascertain the appellation “bust.” When I’m application the chat apprehension in this article, it doesn’t necessarily denote that this alternative was a apprehension on the long-term, aloof that during their amateur year they either didn’t comedy due to abrasion or their numbers that specific year weren’t annihilation special. In adjustment to acquire the apprehension moniker, said amateur bare to be a top-3 all-embracing alternative or addition with a aerial ADP.

This commodity is accounting from a fantasy perspective, so in application the appellation “success,” I’m attractive at whether these numbers would accept been advantageous to owners in accepted 9-cat leagues. 

For a amateur to accept been “successful” they bare to accept met the afterward criteria:

Point Guards: 15 points, 5 assists, 1 steals/three-pointers

Shooting Guards: 15 points, 1.5 steals/three-pointers

Small Forwards: 20 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steals/three-pointers

Big Men: 10 points, 8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks/steals

*If a amateur has an almighty aerial achievement in a statistically attenuate class (blocks, steals, assists) again they can abatement hardly beneath one of these belief and still be accounted successful

The Fabled 2003 Abstract Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CLE

LeBron James

St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (OH)

2

DET

Darko Milicic

Serbia

3

DEN

Carmelo Anthony

Syracuse

4

TOR

Chris Bosh

Georgia Tech

5

MIA

Dwyane Wade

Marquette

6

LAC

Chris Kaman

Central Michigan

7

CHI

Kirk Hinrich

Kansas

8

MIL

T.J. Ford

Texas

9

NYK

Mike Sweetney

Georgetown

10

WAS

Jarvis Hayes

Georgia

11

GSW

Mickael Pietrus

France

12

SEA

Nick Collison

Kansas

13

MEM

Marcus Banks

UNLV

14

SEA

Luke Ridnour

Oregon

15

ORL

Reece Gaines

Louisville

16

BOS

Troy Bell

Boston College

17

PHO

Zarko Cabarkapa

Serbia

18

NOH

David West

Xavier

19

UTA

Sasha Pavlovic

Montenegro

20

BOS

Dahntay Jones

Duke

21

ATL

Boris Diaw

France

22

NJN

Zoran Planinic

Croatia

23

POR

Travis Outlaw

Starkville HS (MS)

24

LAL

Brian Cook

Illinois

25

DET

Carlos Delfino

Argentina

26

MIN

Ndudi Ebi

Westbury Christian School (Houston)

27

MEM

Kendrick Perkins

Ozen HS (TX)

28

SAS

Leandro Barbosa

Brazil

29

DAL

Josh Howard

Wake Forest

Notable Second-Rounders: Zaza Pachulia (No. 42, ORL), Kyle Korver (No. 51, NJ)

Performers

LeBron James: 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.5 turnovers (41.7 FG, 75.4 FT)79 amateur played – 4th annular value

Carmelo Anthony: 21.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.0 turnovers (42.6 FG, 77.7 FT)82 amateur played – 7th annular value

Chris Bosh: 11.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 1.4 turnovers (45.9 FG, 70.1 FT)75 amateur played – 9th annular value

Dwyane Wade: 16.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks 3.2 turnovers (46.5 FG, 74.7 FT)61 amateur played – 8th annular value

BUSTED

Darko Milicic: 1.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.4 blocks (26.2 FG, 58.3 FT) 34 amateur played

2004 Abstract Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

ORL

Dwight Howard

Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy

2

CHA

Emeka Okafor

Connecticut

3

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CHI

Ben Gordon

Connecticut

4

LAC

Shaun Livingston

Peoria Central HS (IL)

5

WAS

Devin Harris

Wisconsin

6

ATL

Josh Childress

Stanford

7

PHO

Luol Deng

Duke

8

TOR

Rafael Araujo

Brigham Young

9

PHI

Andre Iguodala

Arizona

10

CLE

Luke Jackson

Oregon

11

GSW

Andris Biedrins

Latvia

12

SEA

Robert Swift

Bakersfield HS (CA)

13

POR

Sebastian Telfair

Lincoln HS (Brooklyn, NY)

14

UTA

Kris Humphries

Minnesota

15

BOS

Al Jefferson

Prentiss HS (MS)

16

UTA

Kirk Snyder

University of Nevada, Reno

17

ATL

Josh Smith

Oak Hill Academy (VA)

18

NOH

J.R. Smith

St. Benedict’s Preparatory School (NJ)

19

MIA

Dorell Wright

Leuzinger HS (CA)

20

DEN

Jameer Nelson

St. Joseph’s

21

UTA

Pavel Podkolzin

Russia

22

NJN

Viktor Khryapa

Ukraine

23

POR

Sergei Monia

Russia

24

BOS

Delonte West

St. Joseph’s

25

BOS

Tony Allen

Oklahoma State

26

SAC

Kevin Martin

Western Carolina

27

LAL

Sasha Vujacic

Slovenia

28

SAS

Beno Udrih

Slovenia

29

IND

David Harrison

Colorado

Notable Second-Rounders: Anderson Varejao (No. 30, CLE), Trevor Ariza (No. 43, NYK)

Performers

Dwight Howard: 12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 2.0 turnovers (52.0 FG, 67.1 FT)82 amateur played – 4th annular amount (punting FT)

Emeka Okafor: 15.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.7 turnovers (44.7 FG, 60.9 FT) 73 amateur played – 5th annular amount (punting FT)

Specialists

Ben Gordon: 15.1 points, 2.0 assists, 1.6 three-pointers, 2.3 turnovers (41.1 FG, 86.3 FT)82 amateur played – 15th annular value

Andre Iguodala: 9.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.7 turnovers (49.3 FG, 74.3 FT)82 amateur played – 5th annular value

Story Continues

Josh Smith: 9.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (45.5 FG, 68.8 FT)74 amateur played – 9th annular value

2005 Abstract Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

MIL

Andrew Bogut

Utah

2

ATL

Marvin Williams

North Carolina

3

UTA

Deron Williams

Illinois

4

NOH

Chris Paul

Wake Forest

5

CHA

Raymond Felton

North Carolina

6

POR

Martell Webster

Seattle Preparatory School

7

TOR

Charlie Villanueva

Connecticut

8

NYK

Channing Frye

Arizona

9

GSW

Ike Diogu

Arizona State

10

LAL

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Andrew Bynum

St. Joseph HS (NJ)

11

ORL

Fran Vasquez

Spain

12

LAC

Yaroslav Korolev

Russia

13

CHA

Sean May

North Carolina

14

MIN

Rashad McCants

North Carolina

15

NJN

Antoine Wright

Texas A&M

16

TOR

Joey Graham

Oklahoma State

17

IND

Danny Granger

New Mexico

18

BOS

Gerald Green

Gulf Shores Academy (Houston)

19

MEM

Hakim Warrick

Syracuse

20

DEN

Julius Hodge

North Carolina State

21

PHO

Nate Robinson

Washington

22

DEN

Jarrett Jack

Georgia Tech

23

SAC

Francisco Garcia

Louisville

24

HOU

Luther Head

Illinois

25

SEA

Johan Petro

France

26

DET

Jason Maxiell

Cincinnati

27

POR

Linas Kleiza

Missouri

28

SAS

Ian Mahinmi

France

29

MIA

Wayne Simien

Kansas

30

NYK

David Lee

Florida

Notable Second-Rounders: C.J. Miles (No. 34, UTA), Ersan Ilyasova (No. 36, MIL), Monta Ellis (No. 40, GSW), Marcin Gortat (No. 57, PHO)

Performers

Chris Paul: 16.1 points, 7.8 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.3 turnovers (43.0 FG, 84.7 FT)78 amateur played – 2nd annular value

Raymond Felton: 11.9 points, 5.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.2 triples, 2.3 turnovers (39.1 FG, 72.8 FT)

80 amateur played – 12th annular value

Andrew Bogut: 9.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, (53.3 FG, 62.9  FT)82 amateur played – 9th annular value

BUSTED

Marvin Williams: 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 turnovers (44.3 FG, 74.7 FT)79 amateur played

2006 Abstract Class

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

TOR

Andrea Bargnani

Italy

2

CHI

LaMarcus Aldridge

Texas

3

CHA

Adam Morrison

Gonzaga

4

POR

Tyrus Thomas

Louisiana State

5

ATL

Shelden Williams

Duke

6

MIN

Brandon Roy

Washington

7

BOS

Randy Foye

Villanova

8

HOU

Rudy Gay

Connecticut

9

GSW

Patrick O’Bryant

Bradley

10

SEA

Mouhamed Sene

Senegal

11

ORL

J.J. Re

Duke

12

NOK

Hilton Armstrong

Connecticut

13

PHI

Thabo Sefolosha

Switzerland

14

UTA

Ronnie Brewer

Arkansas

15

NOK

Cedric Simmons

North Carolina State

16

CHI

Rodney Carney

Memphis

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17

IND

Shawne Williams

Memphis

18

WAS

Oleksiy Pecherov

Ukraine

19

SAC

Quincy Douby

Rutgers

20

NYK

Renaldo Balkman

South Carolina

21

PHO

Rajon Rondo

Kentucky

22

NJN

Marcus Williams

Connecticut

23

NJN

Josh Boone

Connecticut

24

MEM

Kyle Lowry

Villanova

25

CLE

Shannon Brown

Michigan State

26

LAL

Jordan Farmar

UCLA

27

PHO

Sergio Rodriguez

Spain

28

DAL

Maurice Ager

Michigan State

29

NYK

Mardy Collins

Temple

30

POR

Joel Freeland

England

Notable Second-Rounders: Paul Millsap (No. 47, UTA)

Performers

Brandon Roy: 17.1 points, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.1 turnovers (45.6 FG, 83.8 FT)57 amateur – 5th annular amount L

BUSTED

Andrea Bargnani: 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 three-pointers (42.7 FG, 82.4 FT)65 games

LaMarcus Aldridge: 9.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 blocks (50.3 FG, 72.2 FT)63 amateur played

*Aldridge’s numbers suffered his amateur year because he was ashore arena behind Zach Randolph

2007 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

POR

Greg Oden

Ohio State

2

SEA

Kevin Durant

Texas

3

ATL

Al Horford

Florida

4

MEM

Mike Conley

Ohio State

5

BOS

Jeff Green

Georgetown

6

MIL

Yi Jianlian

China

7

MIN

Corey Brewer

Florida

8

CHA

Brandan Wright

North Carolina

9

CHI

Joakim Noah

Florida

10

SAC

Spencer Hawes

Washington

11

ATL

Acie Law

Texas A&M

12

PHI

Thaddeus Young

Georgia Tech

13

NOK

Julian Wright

Kansas

14

LAC

Al Thornton

Florida State

15

DET

Rodney Stuckey

Eastern Washington

16

WAS

Nick Young

Southern California

17

NJN

Sean Williams

Boston College

18

GSW

Marco Belinelli

Italy

19

LAL

Javaris Crittenton

Georgia Tech

20

MIA

Jason Smith

Colorado State

21

PHI

Daequan Cook

Ohio State

22

CHA

Jared Dudley

Boston College

23

NYK

Wilson Chandler

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DePaul

24

PHO

Rudy Fernandez

Spain

25

UTA

Morris Almond

Rice

26

HOU

Aaron Brooks

Oregon

27

DET

Arron Afflalo

UCLA

28

SAS

Tiago Splitter

Brazil

29

PHO

Alando Tucker

Wisconsin

30

PHI

Petteri Koponen

Finland

Notable Second-Rounders: Marc Gasol (No. 48, LAL), Ramon Sessions (No. 56, MIL), Carl Landry (No. 31, SEA), Glen Davis (No. 35, SEA)

Performers

Kevin Durant: 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers (43.0 FG, 87.3 FT)80 amateur played – 7th annular value

Al Horford: 10.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.7 Turnovers (49.9 FG, 73.1 FT)81 amateur played – 8th annular value

Specialist

Rudy Fernandez: 10.4 points, 2.0 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 1.1 Turnovers (42.5 FG, 83.9 FT)78 amateur played

BUSTED

Greg Oden: 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks (56.4 FG, 63.7 FT)61 amateur played

2008 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

CHI

Derrick Rose

Memphis

2

MIA

Michael Beasley

Kansas State

3

MIN

O.J. Mayo

Southern California

4

SEA

Russell Westbrook

UCLA

5

MEM

Kevin Love

UCLA

6

NYK

Danilo Gallinari

Italy

7

LAC

Eric Gordon

Indiana

8

MIL

Joe Alexander

West Virginia

9

CHA

D.J. Augustin

Texas

10

NJN

Brook Lopez

Stanford

11

IND

Jerryd Bayless

Arizona

12

SAC

Jason Thompson

Rider

13

POR

Brandon Rush

Kansas

14

GSW

Anthony Randolph

Louisiana State

15

PHO

Robin Lopez

Stanford

16

PHI

Marreese Speights

Florida

17

TOR

Roy Hibbert

Georgetown

18

WAS

JaVale McGee

University of Nevada, Reno

19

CLE

J.J. Hickson

North Carolina State

20

CHA

Alexis Ajinca

France

21

NJN

Ryan Anderson

California

22

ORL

Courtney Lee

Western Kentucky

23

UTA

Kosta Koufos

Ohio State

24

SEA

Serge Ibaka

Congo

25

HOU

Nicolas Batum

France

26

SAS

George Hill

IUPUI

27

NOH

Darrell Arthur

Kansas

28

MEM

Donte Greene

Syracuse

29

DET

D.J. White

Indiana

30

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BOS

J.R. Giddens

New Mexico

Notables: Nikola Pekovic (No. 31, MIN), Mario Chalmers (No. 34, MIN), DeAndre Jordan (No. 35, LAC), Goran Dragic (No. 45, SA), Omer Asik (No. 36, POR)

Performers

Derrick Rose: 16.8 points, 6.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.5 turnovers (47.3 FG, 78.8 FT)81 amateur played – 11th annular value

O.J. Mayo: 18.5 points, 3.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.8 3-pointers, 2.8 Turnovers (43.8 FG, 87.9 FT)82 amateur played – 8th annular value

Russell Westbrook: 15.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 3.3 turnovers (39.8 FGs, 81.5 FTs)82 amateur played – 9th annular amount (punting turnovers)

Kevin Love: 11.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.0 three-pointers (45.9 FG, 78.9 FT)81 amateur played – 14th annular value*Love’s amateur year could accept been better, but he was ashore arena behind Al Jefferson for abundant of the season

Eric Gordon: 16.1 points, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.7 three-pointers (38.9 FG, 85.4 FT)78 amateur played – 7th annular value

Brook Lopez: 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (53.1 FG, 81.7 FT)82 amateur played – 5th annular value

2009 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

LAC

Blake Griffin*

Oklahoma

2

MEM

Hasheem Thabeet

Connecticut

3

OKC

James Harden

Arizona State

4

SAC

Tyreke Evans

Memphis

5

MIN

Ricky Rubio

Spain

6

MIN

Jonny Flynn

Syracuse

7

GSW

Stephen Curry

Davidson College

8

NYK

Jordan Hill

Arizona

9

TOR

DeMar DeRozan

Southern California

10

MIL

Brandon Jennings

Oak Hill Academy (VA)

11

NJN

Terrence Williams

Louisville

12

CHA

Gerald Henderson

Duke

13

IND

Tyler Hansbrough

North Carolina

14

PHO

Earl Clark

Louisville

15

DET

Austin Daye

Gonzaga

16

CHI

James Johnson

Wake Forest

17

PHI

Jrue Holiday

UCLA

18

MIN

Ty Lawson

North Carolina

19

ATL

Jeff Teague

Wake Forest

20

UTA

Eric Maynor

Virginia Commonwealth

21

NOH

Darren Collison

UCLA

22

POR

Victor Claver

Spain

23

SAC

Omri Casspi

Israel

24

DAL

Byron Mullens

Ohio State

25

OKC

Rodrigue Beaubois

Guadeloupe

26

CHI

Taj Gibson

Southern California

27

MEM

DeMarre Carroll

Missouri

28

MIN

Wayne Ellington

North Carolina

29

LAL

Toney Douglas

Florida State

30

CLE

Christian Eyenga

Congo

Notable Second-Rounders: Jodie Meeks (No. 41, MIL), Patrick Beverley (No. 42, LAL), Danny Green (No. 46, CLE), Patty Mills (No. 55, POR)

Performers

Tyreke Evans: 20.1 points, 5.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.5 three-pointers, 3.0 turnovers (45.8 FG, 74.8 FT) 72 amateur played – 6th annular value

Stephen Curry: 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.9 steals 2.1 three-pointers (46.2 FG, 88.5 FT)77 amateur played – 1st annular value

Brandon Jennings: 15.5 points, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 three-pointers (37.1 FG, 81.7 FT)82 amateur played – 10th annular value

BUSTED

Hasheem Thabeet: 3.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks (58.8 FG, 58.1 FT)68 amateur played

James Harden: 9.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 three-pointers (40.3 FG, 80.8 FT)76 amateur played*It feels so aberrant to burrow out the apprehension appellation to Chef Harden, but these numbers absolutely wouldn’t accept helped a aggregation in accepted leagues.

Delayed

Blake Griffin* (injured absolute amateur year): 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2.7 turnovers (50.6 FG, 64.2 FT)82 amateur played (2010-11) – 7th annular value

Ricky Rubio* (didn’t accomplish NBA admission until 2011): 10.6 points, 8.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 3.2 Turnovers (35.7 FG, 80.3 FT)

41 amateur played – 6th annular value

2010 NBA Draft

Pick

Team

Player

School/Country

1

WAS

John Wall

Kentucky

2

PHI

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