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Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is appointed to address third-quarter balance on Oct. 23, and investors should brace for things to about-face ugly. The aeon is about amid the worst-performing abode of the year, additional alone to the winter-weary fourth quarter, and there’s no acumen to accept the motorcycle maker is about to change after-effects this year.

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Below are some areas Harley-Davidson investors should watch to barometer aloof how bad the bearings is getting.

Image source: Getty Images.

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Hope springs abiding at Harley-Davidson, and admitting coast sales, it says it will addition shipments to dealers by anywhere from 45,500 to 50,500 bikes, a 9% to 21% jump from aftermost year, aback it alien 41,662 motorcycles. There are several affidavit why it is accretion shipments.

Inventory in the U.S. was bottomward by 14,100 units in the additional division as allotment of a plan to abate accumulation on banker lots. Apathetic sales had acquired dealers to accept too abounding bikes, so Harley has been managing the accent of deliveries. Now, the new 2019 models are hitting showrooms, advocacy the addition numbers.

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Overall, though, Harley expects shipments to be bottomward about 2% to 4% for the year (shipments were bottomward 10.5% in the aboriginal bisected of the year). With as abounding as 236,000 bikes accepted to be alien for the abounding year, Harley is architecture the numbers aback up in the additional bisected of the year. But after sales, dealers ability anon be in the aforementioned baiter of accepting too abounding bikes on hand.

Last quarter, Harley motorcycle sales afraid anybody by not actuality as abhorrent as expected. Not that they were good, but the 6.4% abatement was abundant bigger than the 12% attempt accomplished in the additional quarter, authoritative it attending as if the turnaround anybody was cat-and-mouse for had assuredly arrived.

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The problem: The 46,490 bikes awash were the atomic back the additional division of 2009, aback it awash alone 35,000 bikes during the base of the Great Recession. So sales ability accept been bigger than anybody anticipation they would be, but they still weren’t good. And back the new crop of bikes are appealing abundant the aforementioned as those they’re replacing — big and expensive, alike with the alloyed Dyna and Softail curve — it agency today’s motorcycle buyers aren’t activity to be lining up to ride off on a Harley.

The new demographic of young, urban, and changeable riders are attractive for smaller, lighter, and cheaper bikes. And admitting Harley affairs to body them ancient in the future, that’s not the case now — and investors shouldn’t apprehend that sales will access or alike appreciably attenuated the decline.

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They additionally face antagonism from acclimated bikes, the sales of which are outpacing new ones by 3 to 1, The Wall Street Journal reports. And there is the abiding blackmail from the barter war amid the U.S. and acutely anybody else. Although it alien bikes to Europe advanced of the castigating tariffs actuality imposed, Harley is bistro the college costs instead of casual them forth to dealers or customers, which agency margins are activity to be hurt.

Analysts are forecasting balance of $0.54 per allotment this quarter, a 38% access over the $0.39 per allotment it becoming a year ago. One affair Harley-Davidson has consistently done well, alike during this downturn, is assure its basal line, admitting generally to its accident interns of sales.

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It has mostly banned to appoint in the discounting that its rivals use to move bikes, and that has kept margins intact. Because it owns about bisected the U.S. motorcycle bazaar and about a third of the all-around market, it believes it can allow to break aloft the fray. 

This accomplished division it did try several promotional offers, such as discounted costs of 1.99% and a commitment to baddest barter alms a $1,500 rebate. Both were for a bound time, but the after-effects advance they had the adapted effect. Harley said sales had a apathetic alpha due to poor acclimate in April, but the promotions helped lift sales in May and June, and acceptable led to the “less worse” sales achievement in the quarter.

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Harley generated adapted balance of $1.52 per share, a beneath than 3% accretion from the above-mentioned period, which indicates it could do added on the discounting front. It could accomplish added sales, bottle its bazaar position, and still abound profits for shareholders. 

Harley is aircraft added bikes to dealers to get inventories to targeted levels. But after sales, those new bikes will afresh face the anticipation of acquisition dust on exhibit floors. Balance will eventually be aching too.

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Without any catalysts to move bikes off the lot, Harley-Davidson’s third division is activity to see added of the same, and ultimately that will accident the bike maker’s acceptability and aching the exceptional accession it is angry so adamantine to maintain.

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